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Radwanski's Ramblings...


Thursday June 17, 2004

Because keeping John Turner worked out so well...

Lawrence Martin figures Paul Martin is sticking around as Liberal leader, even in opposition. As you may recall from last week, I disagree. If I were you, I'd probably take his word over mine. But barring some sort of magical turnaround in the next 10 days, the Liberals would be absolutely insane to give this guy another chance.

To me, Martin (Paul, not Lawrence) looks very much like a man who hates his job, even if it's one he was lusting after for much of his adult life. Maybe duty/stubbornness/some Freudian thing we can't begin to comprehend will compell him to try to hold onto it. But deep down, he can't have a whole lot of enthusiasm for spending a few years in opposition.

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Wednesday June 16, 2004

Round II

In spending last night's entire debate looking for a "knockout punch" (and yes, it's now officially become a cliche to bemoan the overuse of this cliche), much of the media overlooked that the whole thing may have been a knockout punch. One would be hard-pressed to pick a clear winner, though Harper seems to be the consensus choice (more on that in a moment). But Martin, to these eyes at least, was a mess.

In the French debate, I actually thought the PM accounted for himself rather well, even if he blew it big time by failing to press Duceppe on the sovereignty agenda. But last night, he came off cranky, flustered and defensive. Way too much arm-waving, grimacing, head-shaking, and all the rest. And as for the message, some leaders are born to deliver platitudes, and some are only credible when they're offering some substance. Martin is the latter, but he's still trying to be the former. It ain't working.

Now, as for those public perceptions...

I was thinking of writing a column a few days ago on how, in almost every debate, viewers see what they want to see. I wish I had.

If his campaign were tanking, Harper could've given the same performance and we all would have piled on him for being flat, uninspired, robotic, and insufficiently prime ministerial. But because the Liberal campaign has imploded and - largely by default - Conservative support has spiked, he's now getting the benefit of the doubt and more. The exact same thing happened last fall in Ontario, when Dalton McGuinty was lauded for a debate performance only marginally better than the one four years earlier that everyone thought was so disastrous. Heading into an election, our optimism tends to get the better of us, we invest it in one of the leaders, and for a few weeks he's seen in a light he could previously only dream of.

A colleague mentioned this morning that, on a post-debate CBC call-in show, one listener described Harper's performance as "Kennedyesque." I rest my case.

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Tuesday June 15, 2004

Round I

I'm going to hold off any substantive debate judgements till I watch the English version. So just two quick points for now.

First, if you're one of those people who complains that we spend too much time analyzing their style and not enough on their substance, watch the French debate with English dubbing (or, alternatively, the English debate with French dubbing). It's like listening to a high school remedial english class reading a transcript of politicians talking to each other. Pretty well the only option is to concentrate on the content, or else you'll be passed out on your couch in a matter of minutes.

Second, I love the new format. Lots of one-on-one exchanges - exactly what's been missing since the Mulroney-Turner debates. If the participants are up to it, tonight's show should be pretty worthwhile.

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Mystery solved

It turns out that Mario Silva is not indecisive...just cheap. I was promptly informed following yesterday's posting that the signs sans Martin are holdovers from the former councillor's last couple of municipal campaigns, with a Liberal logo pasted on.

Kidding aside, it looks like Silva might not be the only one having to do things on the cheap. Contacts in or around several campaigns suggest that money is starting to dry up. Bad news for the Liberals: When the cheques stop coming, the votes are usually next.

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Franz invades

I didn't know quite what to expect from last night's Franz Ferdinand show. Their live reputation already precedes them, but their debut disc - while tremendous in its own right - doesn't really sound like the sort of thing that would translate all that well live.

Let's just say it does. Big time. For once, all the NME buzz is entirely justified.

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Touch 'em all, Tom

Every Toronto sports fan's thoughts should be with Tom Cheek.

Even if he's an American by birth and citizenship, Cheek is a Toronto institution - but he still doesn't get nearly as much credit as he should. As a friend pointed out yesterday, if he'd managed to call every single game for more than 27 years for the Red Sox, Yankees, or most other teams, there'd be streets named after him. Here, he doesn't quite get his due - but hopefully he will now, as everyone wishes him a full recovery.

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Monday June 14, 2004

Not that I'm making any assumptions about the election results or anything

Last Friday's column on just how ugly things may get for the Liberals post-election is now available on-site. If you're wondering, some of the folks apparently sniffing around the leadership - other than John Manley, who's doing more sniffing than everyone else combined - are Brian Tobin, Maurizio Bevilacqua and Martin Cauchon. I don't think any of them would be a powerful enough force to negate all the problems the Liberals are facing post-Martin, but there you have it.

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Green with confusion

Everyone loves the Green Party these days. With their meteoric rise to 7% in the polls (and yes, that qualifies as meteoric when you're starting from nowhere) despite their exclusion from this week's debates, they're the kind of underdog the media loves. Just one question, though...who the hell are these guys, and why is anyone voting for them?

I get that there's a contingent of disgruntled voters from across the spectrum looking for some way to register a protest vote. Fair enough, though I'd still suggest it's generally a good idea to have some idea what you're voting for. But as far as I can tell, there's also a bit of a movement on the left toward the Greens, and that's what I find inexplicable. In the U.S., their emergence in 2000 made perfect sense given that there's a ton of room to the left of the Democrats. But up here, can anyone really make a case that the NDP has sold out and is in need of a little left-wing competition?

If I can find the time this week, I plan to get somewhere close to the bottom of this. If I succeed, you'll read about it in my Citizen column. If I don't, well...hopefully I'll write something about something else that's sufficiently dazzling you'll forget all about this.

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In this type of sign language, it's possible to speak out of both sides of your mouth

If you've been through enough ridings and seen enough lawn signs, you know there are two different groups of Liberal candidates: the ones who went into the campaign thinking their leader was enough of an asset to opt into the "Team Martin" signs with his smiling face in the top corner, and those who figured they were better to go it alone with more traditional designs, sans Paul. But in perhaps the ultimate show display of indecisiveness, one Toronto candidate has gone both routes.

Drive through Davenport, and you see two entirely different Mario Silva signs - one of each type. There has to be a story here, but I have no idea what it is. Anyone who's in the know is encouraged to share with the rest of us.

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Saturday June 12, 2004

"No campaigning for me tonight...TBS is showing The Pelican Brief

In today's Post, each of the major party leaders is asked to choose his favourite movie of all time. Paul Martin goes with Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, which is a reasonable choice even if it dates him a bit. Jack Layton goes with Star Wars - a bit geeky, but he'd have a lot of company (and at least he didn't manage to tie it to missile defence). But Stephen Harper, known to be a movie buff, goes with - I kid you not - The Firm.

Seriously, do we want a prime minister whose favourite flick is a crappy John Grisham/Tom Cruise legal thriller? If I were running the Liberal campaign, I think I'd have to commission an attack ad that shows Harper sitting in front of a TV watching and re-watching that scene where Cruise jumps out the window to escape the evil lawyers, clapping his hands with delight every time he makes his daring escape. Trust me, nobody will be able to see him as prime minister after that.

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Radwanski's Ramblings from June 4-10, 2004

Radwanski's Ramblings from May 28-June 3, 2004

Radwanski's Ramblings from May 21-27, 2004

Radwanski's Ramblings from May 14-20, 2004

Radwanski's Ramblings from May 7-13, 2004

Radwanski's Ramblings from April 23-May 6, 2004

Radwanski's Ramblings from April 16-22, 2004

Radwanski's Ramblings from April 9-15, 2004

Radwanski's Ramblings from April 2-8, 2004

Radwanski's Ramblings from March 26-April 1, 2004





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