With apologies to Peter King, things I think I might possibly know (but probably don’t)…

So if this and this and this are all more or less accurate, we have a pretty good idea what the next Cabinet is going to look like.

This is the point where I’m supposed to weigh in on how well each of the appointees will do whatever they’re doing. But frankly, that’s a bit of a fool’s game. Those of us in media are able to get, at best, a look at maybe 10% of what a minister does; the rest is behind the scenes and away from the camera. Hence, even after watching these folks perform for a couple of years, we often have a different view of how they’re faring than the one held by mandarins, PCO, stakeholders, etc. So trying to pass judgement the day they’re announced, when most ministers find themselves in new portfolios, is a little presumptuous.

That said, I think Pierre Pettigrew will be a good Foreign Affairs Minister. I wonder about Ujjal Dosanjh’s ability to negotiate with the provinces on health care, assuming that’s where he winds up, especially considering his relationship with the B.C. government. I think leaving Reg Alcock at Treasury Board is a huge mistake (on that one, some enterprising columnists have done a good job of assessing the way senior bureaucrats feel about him).

I think Bill Graham is going to hate being Defence Minister and hate all the flack that comes with it, most of which will be personally undeserved. I think leaving Ralph Goodale at Finance is probably the smart move, but I’m not so sure about Tony Valeri as House leader. I think Ken Dryden is going to work as hard as any minister, but I think the gallery is going to hate him within about a week for his inability to give anything distantly related to a sound byte. I have no idea why Jacques Saada’s being demoted, if that’s the case.

I think it was about time David Anderson and Denis Coderre were dropped, and that John Godfrey was promoted and Stephane Dion was returned to his rightful place at the table (though I hope he’s not being set up in Environment, if that’s where he winds up). But I think the PM is doing himself no favours by childishly keeping Maurizio Bevilacqua out, and I think I’ve made clear before what I think about Jean Lapierre.

I think all of this. I don’t pretend to know it. Come back to me in six months or a year, and we’ll know better whether any of my hunches were correct.