Like the rest of the country, it's a safe bet most senior Liberals were nursing a nasty headache Sunday morning. The difference is, theirs didn't go away after a few hours - and it's probably getting worse.
As if on cue, the new year has seen the Liberals start to collapse in the polls. By Ipsos Reid's count, the Conservatives have moved slightly into the lead - including in Ontario, although the gap is well within the margin of error. The CPAC-SES daily tracking paints a similar picture of a virtual dead heat. But the numbers only tell half the story.
It's a long way from telling a pollster over the phone how you're going to vote to actually leaving home on a cold January day and casting a ballot. In the 2004 election, barely 60% of eligible Canadians bothered to vote; the smart money is on that total dipping even lower on Jan. 23. And of all those likely to stay home, the likeliest by far are those who self-identify as Liberals.
Reached yesterday, Ipsos-Reid president Darrell Bricker confirmed that "of the major party supporters, the Grits are the most reluctant to participate in the election." According to his company's research, 68% of both Tories and New Democrats and 70% of Bloquistes say they're "absolutely certain" to vote, next to just 60% of Liberals.
It's usually the case that Liberals are the least passionate about their choice; such is the nature of a pragmatist party. But this time, it's all but impossible to come up with a positive reason to vote for them unless you're a card-carrying member - and even then, it's not a sure thing.
Their agenda is virtually impossible to discern. They've barely had a policy record in the past two years, and until recently were busy disowning the one under Jean Chretien. Their principles have proven totally malleable. Their competence, once a saving grace, is not much of a selling point when their leader looks flustered every time a major challenge arises. Their ethical reputation is beyond repair.
The only reason to actually go mark a ballot for the Liberals is that they're the best of a bad lot. That's what Paul Martin is hoping for -- hence his focus on the Conservatives, rather than the Liberal record. But for that to work, as it did in the last campaign, he needs voters to fear the possibility of Stephen Harper in the Prime Minister's Office. And while that's still a distasteful enough notion for many centrist types that they'd prefer the Liberals, it's no longer quite scary enough to get them coming out in droves on election day.
What the Liberals desperately need is a wedge issue to motivate their base. They've tried with gay marriage, but that seems to be a dead issue to most voters -- and besides, few supposed advocates seem less keen on making a case for it than Mr. Martin. They've tried with national unity, except Mr. Martin's squishy record on federalism and the presence of Jean Lapierre as his Quebec lieutenant have gotten in the way. They've tried with their proposed handgun ban, but it's the Conservatives who look like the stronger party on law and order issues.
There was a time when it would have been scandalous in polite society to announce that one didn't intend to vote. Now, it's considered a principled stand. We're unable to support any of these parties in good conscience, erstwhile Liberals are saying, so the only responsible thing will be to stay home.
The ability to scare a few would-be New Democrats into voting strategically notwithstanding, the challenge for the Liberals in the next three weeks is not to win over other parties' supporters -- it's to win over their own. But having spent years persistently alienating them, it might be too late.
