Last week, I was talking with a diehard Philadelphia Eagles fan when he shared his darkest football-related fear. Maybe, he said, the Eagles' disastrous 2005 season wasn't a blip. Maybe their days of dominance were over - the team destined for years in the NFL's wilderness before becoming competitive again.
Diehard supporters of the federal Liberals should be having similar fears right about now.
Since 1993, the party has boasted one of the most impressive dynasties in Canadian political history. As Jean Chretien was fond of reminding anyone who would listen, he was the only prime minister since the Second World War to lead his party to three straight majority governments. And though Paul Martin's minority government in 2004 was a less impressive feat, it still left opponents wondering if the Liberals would ever be beatable.
Those days are gone. Not only are the Liberals on the verge of being beaten once - they might well be saying goodbye to power for many years.
With polls showing the Conservatives on top, talk has already turned to who will replace Martin if the Liberals are defeated. There's no guarantee that Martin would go willingly, however; Liberals are already whispering that he won't. But if the Liberals cede power to a minority Conservative government and then go into another campaign with the same leader, they'll get destroyed. So we might wind up with the party apparatus that Martin still controls helping him cling to the leadership, his caucus desperately seeking his ouster, and a bloody coup attempt that will make the old Martin-Chretien battles look like a love-in.
Even if Martin went willingly, it wouldn't be a smooth succession. Thanks to the ruthless Martinite purge of any potential leadership rival during the Chretien years, and the weakness of the current Cabinet, the Liberals lack an obvious heir to the throne for the first time in generations. While some of the candidates have potential - Frank McKenna, Martin Cauchon, perhaps even Scott Brison - none of them are dazzling enough to overcome the massive challenges the next leader will face.
The Liberal brand name, once such an asset, would be damaged beyond short-term repair. The scandals that have helped hobble this campaign won't go away quickly - especially not with a new government that's eager to pursue every allegation against the old one, just as the Liberals were in 1993. Then there's Quebec.
By the time the next election comes, the Liberals might be replaced by the Conservatives as the predominant federalist option in that province. And considering they've already been written off in most of Western Canada, that would require the Liberals to virtually sweep Ontario in order to stay competitive.
But their biggest problem might be the changing perception of Stephen Harper. Even in this election, in which he's run a nearly flawless campaign, the prospect of the Conservative leader holding majority power makes many centrist voters uneasy. But after a brief stint governing as a moderate - a necessity if he is to attract support from other parties in a minority Parliament -- the fear factor will have evaporated. And if that happens, the Tories should have enough support in Ontario and Atlantic Canada to win a majority government next time around.
The Tories have botched too many other election campaigns for this one to be considered over. For all we know, Harper might even fall apart during tonight's debate. But barring such a meltdown, the Liberals are in trouble.
Like a sports team entering a prolonged rebuilding period, the Liberals could emerge with better talent. But it stands to be a long time before they're able to recreate their dynasty of the past dozen years.
