These are exciting times in Quebec. If the polls are to be
believed, there might be just four more days of sovereigntist rule
before Bernard Landry's Parti Quebecois is punted from office by Jean
Charest's Liberals.
So it feels pretty lonely to be one of the only people in Ontario
pulling for the PQ to win. Don't get me wrong: I have less time for the
Pequistes and their cousins in the Bloc Quebecois than for members of
any other major Canadian party. But wrong-headed as their raison d'etre
may be, there's also something inherently non-threatening about the
sovereignty movement's current standard-bearers. With every gaffe, every
failed test of his intellectual mettle, every misguided attempt to turn
his province against the rest of us, Mr. Landry takes the movement back
another step. The man is perfectly incapable of manufacturing the
"winning conditions," and there's nobody much better waiting in the
wings.
Mr. Charest, on the other hand, scares me. Why? Consider the evidence.
His affinity for constitutional matters, which last surfaced in 2001.
Saying that he hoped intergovernmental negotiations would begin "as soon
as possible," the Liberal leader pledged that the federal government
would no longer have a "free ride." Among the laundry list of demands
was the return of a constitutional veto to future changes to the
federation, Senate reform, administrative agreements giving Quebec more
powers, and provincial participation in the selection of Supreme Court
judges. Worst of all was a bid, frighteningly reminiscent of the
"distinct society" clause 13 years ago, for recognition of Quebec's
"specificity" in the Constitution.
His promise earlier this week of an "all-out battle" for the transfer
of tax powers from the federal government to Quebec. Mirroring a report
commissioned last year by the PQ (though Mr. Charest insists he had the
idea first), he wants to correct a "fiscal imbalance" that supposedly
shortchanges Quebec $2.5 billion per year. That a provincial politician
wants more money from the feds is nothing new, but his stated
willingness to work with the Bloc to get it certainly is.
His determination to prove to Quebecers that he's more than just a
transplanted federalist, which has emerged as a recurrent theme of his
campaign. In sharp contrast to Daniel Johnson's 1994 response that he
was "a Canadian, first and foremost," Mr. Charest has proclaimed himself
a nationalist. "I feel very attached to Quebec and I always have been,"
he said Tuesday. "I am very proud my record reflects this attachment,
this loyalty to Quebec."
The soft nationalist Liberal government of Robert Bourassa, which
paved the way for nearly 49.4 per cent of voters to opt for sovereignty
in 1995. By the time the Liberals were defeated in 1994, having helped
precipitate the Meech Lake and Charlottetown debacles of the early
1990s, they'd done more to widen the gulf between Quebec and the rest of
Canada than sovereigntists could envision in their wildest dreams.
Mr. Charest is not as much of a hard-line nationalist as many in his
party's past and present. But he is, from everything we've seen in his
career as a federal and provincial politician, a hard-line opportunist.
And knowing that it's tough to win francophone votes if you're seen to
be too close to the federal government, he's busy wrapping himself in
the Quebec flag.
That might not be a problem, if he were to revert to federalist form the
day after he wins the election. But the overwhelming probability is
that, when the going gets tough some time in his first term, Mr. Charest
will seek a battle with the federal government to generate a boost in
the polls. When that happens, likely in the form of constitutional
demands, there will be two possible results.
Either Prime Minister Paul Martin will reject Mr. Charest's pitch
outright, or else he will agree to a process that will almost inevitably
end in failure and acrimony. Either way, Quebec's "federalist" party
will once again be left bemoaning the province's role in Canada, and the
PQ will have its next ballot question. A referendum, much like the one
that followed Meech and Charlottetown in 1995, won't be far behind.
Too much doom and gloom? Perhaps. But when the future of the country
might be at stake, there's a case to be made for the devil we know.
Because even though neither side seems to have realized it, Mr. Charest
might just be the sovereigntists' secret weapon.
