Admit it: You don't take the Ontario government's fight to get more
money out of Ottawa seriously.
It's Liberals battling Liberals. It's Dalton McGuinty, who's not exactly
the kind of person you'd be afraid to meet in a dark alley, up against
Paul Martin, who'd be too scared to go into the alley in the first
place. It's conveniently timed to coincide with a provincial budget
that's going to be another tough sell, giving it the look of a public
relations exercise. And hey, it's Ontario, where provincialist fervour
is virtually non-existent.
It's the natural reaction. But it's not one you're likely to have after
talking to the people at Queen's Park.
If the McGuinty Liberals weren't prepared to go the wall on this
campaign, they wouldn't have created a position in the Premier's office
to manage it full-time. (Tellingly, the posting is temporarily being
filled by Andrew Steele - a hard-nosed campaign veteran who most
recently helped run the Liberal war room in the 2003 election; a
long-term replacement is expected to be named shortly.)
If they weren't serious about this spat, they wouldn't be making it the
focal point of government communications - including Mr. McGuinty's
speech on Wednesday night at the Heritage Dinner, the biggest provincial
Liberal fundraiser of the year and one of the Premier's best chances to
get his message out to Bay Street.
And certainly, there wouldn't be a contingent of them - not to mention
their counterparts in the Martin camp - fretting about the impact this
is going to have on the Liberal brand name in Ontario.
You can disagree with their methods. You can question their numbers (as
the Martinites have with the claim that Ontario sends $23-billion more
to Ottawa every year than it gets back). You can complain that they're
abandoning Ontario's traditional role as a federal-provincial uniter.
But you can't dispute that they're deadly serious.
The McGuinty Liberals contend that they initially did their part to play
nice with Ottawa, only to be greeted with indifference in return. Then
the Prime Minister cut an absurdly generous equalization deal with two
Atlantic provinces, which had the simultaneous effects of endorsing
Newfoundland Premier Danny Williams' hardball tactics and skewing the
equalization formula even more against Ontario.
Mr. McGuinty won't be ripping down Canadian flags any time soon. But key
to his strategy is awakening the sort of provincialist passion that
premiers in Alberta, Manitoba, Newfoundland - and, well, just about
every other province - take for granted.
How he'll achieve it is something of a mystery. But the basic strategy
is to convince Ontarians their fiscal loyalty should lie with their
province, that the province is getting robbed and, most important of
all, that Mr. McGuinty is the best man to stop the larceny.
It's something the Premier will need to get done in short order. This
entire exercise revolves around the near certainty that the next federal
election will come well before the next provincial one, increasing the
likelihood that the Martinites - counting on making gains in Ontario -
will blink first. But as things stand, the Ontario public probably isn't
engaged enough to make that happen.
Then again, this is Paul Martin we're talking about - a prime minister
so conflict-averse that he's spent his first 15 months in office
throwing money at the provinces in hope of keeping them quiet. So you
can't fault Mr. McGuinty for taking his chances.
The Ontario Premier may not be an intimidating figure. But then again,
neither is Danny Williams. Having dared Mr. Martin to meet him in a dark
alley, he's betting the PM won't show up.
You have to like his odds.